Israel faces new Syria challenge as it adjusts to new strategy amid regional power struggle for influence

TEL AVIV — The Israeli Air Force on Thursday struck the headquarters of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist organization in Damascus, Syria, amid ongoing instability in the country following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad by an al Qaeda-linked insurgency.

After the fall of Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024, Israel deployed troops to the demilitarized buffer zone with Syria while also launching a diplomatic offensive to shape the balance of power.

“The deployment of Israeli forces is concentrated around the Syrian [side of Mount] Hermon, the high grounds in that area and below that on the northern part of the Syrian Golan Heights — more or less along, but not beyond, the Bravo Line [marking the end of the buffer zone],” Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan Conricus, a former IDF spokesman and now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.

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He continued, “The primary threat is a ground invasion towards Israeli communities on the Golan Heights by various jihadi elements. Until the political and military situation stabilizes and Israel can have security guarantees that there is indeed a sovereign entity in control of Syria, which will limit the approach by various terror organizations, Israeli troops will be deployed.”

While many global players may be willing to turn a blind eye to the carnage in Syria in hopes of resolving the nearly 15-year crisis, analysts say Israel has no such illusions, prompting the IDF to conduct over 300 strikes in the country, including against Assad regime air force bases and suspected chemical weapons sites, in the immediate aftermath of the regime change.

On Sunday, Israel seemingly upped the ante when the new IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, held a situational assessment in the buffer zone with Syria. Zamir was the first chief of staff to have entered Syria.

“Immediately upon the fall of the regime, [Israel] devastated Syrian military capabilities to make sure some advanced capabilities and air defense [systems] would not fall into the hands of this regime and would be cleared in case Israel has any future desire to overfly [in] Syria,” said John Hannah, a Senior Fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA).

“They’ve [also] set up checkpoints in certain Druze areas right on the border [and] declared their willingness to protect the Druze. Israel has a significant Druze minority of its own who are loyal and good citizens of Israel who fight in its army. So, Israel has a deep domestic concern and interest with making sure that Druze communities near its borders [in Syria] are not subject to the kinds of threats and slaughter that we saw over the weekend along the [Syrian] coast,” he added.

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Some 1,000 Alawites, a minority sect of Shiite Islam, as well as a number of Christians were murdered over the course of a few days last week in the coastal provinces of Tartus and Latakia. The killings have laid bare concerns over the new Sunni Islamist government led by al-Sharaa, commander of the al Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that deposed Assad.

Conricus said that the massacres have validated Israel’s strategy, emphasizing that the persecution of the Alawites, Christians, Kurds and Druze population constitutes a danger to regional stability.

“There is a lot of sectarian violence by various foreign jihadi groups, which is a threat. Until only the Syrian state controls the weapons, Israel cannot jeopardize the life of Israeli civilians,” he said.

“We know Hezbollah and Iranian factions continue to try to smuggle weapons into Syria, with Tehran still trying to operate proxies. This is compounded by Turkish imperialistic behavior, which can lead to confrontation,” he added. “I think trying to keep the borders defined by the French at the end of World War I will be a challenge for the Syrian state.”

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Jonathan Spyer, director of research at the Middle East Forum who has reported from Syria, told Fox News Digital that Jerusalem’s aim is for Syria to remain decentralized and weak, rather than united under the leadership of jihadi forces.

 “Turkey is the main backer of HTS, and Israel regards Ankara as a hostile country where Hamas had an active operations office. Turkey has been supportive of Hamas in the war,” he said.

“While Russia is opposed to the global bloc led by the U.S., of which Israel is a part, there is no direct clash between the two nations. Russia did not seek to impede Israel’s bombing campaign against Iran in Syria.”

Israel is reportedly pressuring the Trump administration to ensure Syria remains fragmented, by giving the Russians a green light to maintain its bases in the country to counter Turkey.

In 2015, Russia intervened in Syria on behalf of the Assad regime, setting up outposts in the Middle East for the first time since the end of the Cold War. Jerusalem and Moscow have created a deconfliction mechanism to avoid direct military encounters when the IDF strikes Iranian terror assets in Syria, along with those destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon.

“HTS is an organization that Israel knows well. It was there for several years prior to fall of Assad and its record shows it is a Sunni Jihadi Islamist organization supportive of [Hamas’] Oct. 7 [massacre] and opposed to Israel and Jews,” Spyer said.

“Israel’s experience prior to Oct. 7, on Oct. 7, and in the Gaza war taught Israelis not to have illusions regarding Sunni Islamists even when they say they are moderate,” he added.