Study: Armed Citizens Stop Active Shooters Far More Than FBI Data Shows

A new analysis from American Rifleman digs into why FBI active-shooter statistics and the Crime Prevention Research Center's numbers tell wildly different stories about how often armed citizens stop mass killings, and the gap is a lot bigger than most coverage lets on.

Key points

• The numbers: CPRC founder Dr. John R. Lott, Jr. found that from 2014-2025, armed citizens stopped 225 of 615 identified active-shooter incidents (36.6%), compared to the FBI's count of just 16 stops out of 408 incidents (3.9%).
• Recent trend: Lott says that figure climbs to 42.5% over the past five years, and jumps to 56.3% when incidents inside gun-free zones are excluded.
• Why the mismatch: The article attributes the discrepancy to FBI methodology that relies on ALERRT Center data, narrow incident definitions, and what Lott calls outright omission or misclassification of cases where civilians intervened.
• Real-world example: The piece opens with carpenter Kaylub Giamanco, who confronted and shot an attacker at Silver Rail Elementary in Oregon, an event the AP reportedly framed as unusual despite the broader data suggesting otherwise.
• FBI's response: When pressed by journalist John Stossel, the FBI reportedly admitted its data isn't meant to capture every active-shooter incident but rather provide a "baseline understanding."

Quick take

If Lott's numbers hold up, the public conversation about defensive gun use is working off incomplete federal data, and that matters when it shapes press coverage and policy debates. Worth a full read if you want the methodology behind the gap, not just the headline stat.

Read the full story: americanrifleman.org