How Gun-Control States Plan to Rewrite Assault Weapon Bans After SCOTUS

With a major Second Amendment case headed for a Supreme Court ruling around mid-2027, William Kirk of Washington Gun Law looks at how blue-state legislatures might rewrite assault-weapon bans to survive whatever the Court decides.

Snapshot

Kirk walks through six states that flipped to full Democratic control after the midterms and argues they're likely to revive assault-weapon legislation regardless of the pending Supreme Court case. His core point: the ban's label may die in court, but lawmakers will just redefine the same firearms under new terms to keep restrictions alive.

Key points

• Three definitions exist: Kirk explains current bans use make-and-model lists, external-feature descriptions (stocks, grips, etc.), or internal operating mechanisms, with only the first two actually in use in any state today.
• Both current methods are under fire: he notes Cook County, Illinois and Connecticut both relied on make-and-model and external-feature bans, and both are being challenged in the Veramontes and Grant cases now before the Supreme Court.
• The "go-safe" workaround: if the Court strikes down both existing approaches, Kirk says the untested internal-mechanism ban, floated federally and in New Mexico but never passed, becomes the likely fallback.
• Muzzle energy per minute: Kirk flags a formula pushed in an amicus brief by a group called CRIME, which multiplies a single muzzle-energy reading by assumed rounds fired per minute, calling it a fabricated metric with no basis in ballistics science.
• Possession vs. sale: he distinguishes bans that only block future sales, grandfathering existing owners, from stricter versions requiring registration or outright possession bans, which he says invite takings-clause challenges on top of Second Amendment fights.

Quick take

Kirk's framing is useful less as a prediction and more as a heads-up: watch the language in any new bill, not just the headline ban. If his read is right, a Supreme Court win on the current cases won't end the fight, it'll just shift the wording lawmakers use next session.

Watch the full video: Washington Gun Law