Why spring grouse counts beat heat-skewed summer tallies this season

This year's record heat didn't just wilt the heather, it scrambled the summer grouse counts that keepers rely on to plan the season, according to retired gamekeeper and former NGO chairman Lindsay Waddell writing for ShootingUK.

Snapshot

Waddell explains that extreme heat pushed grouse off dry ground and into damp rush cover and bracken in search of water, leaving some areas of moorland looking empty while a few damp pockets showed artificially high numbers. He argues the keepers who came out ahead were the ones who trusted their spring stock counts and brood knowledge instead of the skewed summer figures.

Key points

• Heat distorted counts: Once moorland dried out completely, grouse moved en masse to damp cover and water, making July counts unreliable or worthless on dry ground.
• History repeats: Waddell notes similar problems occurred in past hot, dry years, including 1976, so this is not an entirely new problem for keepers.
• Spring data as backup: Most moors run spring transects to measure pair density, traditionally a pair to four acres, which holds up even when summer counts fail.
• Simple surplus math: Waddell lays out the arithmetic: multiply spring pairs by average brood size, minus roughly one chick per brood for losses, to estimate shootable surplus without chasing birds that have scattered.
• Future planning: He warns that if hot summers become more frequent, pairing spring counts with a keeper's own knowledge of how birds bred will matter more for long-term stock management.

Quick take

For anyone planning a grouse season, this is a reminder that a single bad-weather count shouldn't drive the whole plan. Waddell's math is simple enough for any keeper to run themselves, and it beats guessing based on birds that have simply gone looking for a drink.

Read the full story: shootinguk.co.uk